BRUSSELS (Sputnik) – The coronavirus pandemic looks set to shave off 2.8 percent from the global economic output this year, a UK-based forecasting firm has predicted in its monthly report.
Oxford Economics has updated its baseline global economic outlook which forecasts a slump of 7 percent in the global industrial production in the first half of 2020.
“For Western economies currently in lockdown we expect restrictions to start to be lifted in Q2, leading to a sharp resurgence in activity in H2. But despite this rebound, we project that world GDP will shrink by 2.8% in 2020 overall”, it reads.
The overall downturn will be far more severe than the post-financial crisis 1.1 percent drop recorded in 2009. The pick-up in the second half of the year and the return to more normal conditions in 2021 will cause global growth to rise to almost 6 percent.
“But the severity of the coronavirus shock is likely to lead to a permanent output loss for the global economy”, analysts predicted.
Countries around the world shut companies or limited production in an effort to contain the deadly outbreak of the virus, which has infected more than 1.9 million people worldwide and killed over 123,000 since December.